Bullying the Market

Did the Bully just nail the top of the market? The S&P closed at 1097.91 on the day he recommended to sell equities. (You could have easily sold at this level the next day as well.)

Take a look at the daily S&P candle chart. Looks like we are going to test the 50 day MA for the second time in a month. Will we hold this time? The Bully's best guess is we bounce off the 50 day MA initially but break through to the downside shortly thereafter.

From Bully to Beary

Back in the beginning of April, the Bully called for a 50% retracement in stocks that would likely take us above 1000 level on the S&P (see link below). Actually, technically speaking, the 50% retracement level is closer to 1125 but no matter how you slice it we're basically there. Can you smell the optimism in the air now that "the recession is over"? Hmmmm...investors are eating up the profits and asset prices that are being supported by the government pumping tons of stimulus into the economy. But the structural issues surrounding our economy continue to be avoided and have only gotten worse. The only way to find a true bottom in the market is without intervention. It's only a matter of time until the index finger collapses on the hopes of a V shaped recovery and all that is left is the market giving investors the middle finger.

For the one or two of you who look to the Bully for market and financial advice, now is a great time to sell your equity positions and start getting defensive again. Surely you can't imagine this would be the right move with such optimism brewing but these are the moments that define great investors (going against the thundering herd). With Wall St. paying out huge bonuses again and Main St. suffering, you can bet your sweet bottom that more stimulus is going to be hard to come by when it's needed again (which will be soon).

http://thebullycockpit.blogspot.com/2009/04/50-retracement.html

Movie Wednesday

Semi-retirement is turning into a bit of a grind. Sure, I'm back looking for work and trying to get into a Master's of Education program, both of which are good for my mental state as it relates to having a longer-term plan. Nevertheless, trying to keep busy on a day-to-day basis is proving a bit of a challenge, particularly as the weather is now cooling.

So I decided to go to the movies on Friday afternoon. Like every good (semi-)retiree, I'm always looking for a good deal. While the matinee deal of $7 is a nice little bargain, Wednesday is a special day with all movies only $5.50 all day long. So now each Wednesday that I'm free I plan on going to the movies. If the mood strikes me and there's something worthwhile, I'll provide a movie review here.

I do have a review of the first movie I saw, Capitalism: A Love Story. Overall I'd say it was a solid movie that is worth seeing. It brings up some very interesting points, particularly in light of the record Wall St. bonuses that are likely going to be paid this year. The best parts of the movie are when MM gives historical perspective comparing us to the Roman Empire and the how the Reagan and Carter eras set some destructive wheels in motion. He argues that we have exported all of our manufacturing and industrial expertise in the name of profits (agreed). Finally, he provides some interesting insight on the bailout package (although I think he borders a bit too much on conspiracy theory here). Areas where I believe he falls short are when he tries to humanize the situation and shows depressing footage of people's homes being repossessed. While it's sad and I'm sympathetic to people being put on the street, it reaks of the victim syndrome. He shows several families that have lived in their houses for 40+ years that get evicted. But if they've lived there for so long why do they have debt on their houses? Sure MM tries to blame the politicans giving confidence in the value of people's homes and that they should tap the equity but in my book you can never blame someone else for your own greed. I'd like to see the whole story of the ridiculous items they bought by tapping their home equity loans. This may not actually be the case (they may have tapped their homes to just survive) but it's an area where MM comes off as sensationalist and potentially without regard to facts. I know this sounds insensitive but I'm just providing a review. Another area where he falls short is in not providing solutions. Sure, he does delve a bit into companies that are run as cooperatives (which I believe are great and likely where our economy is headed in the longer-term). But he could have done more to provide potential solutions.

Overall, I'd give the movie 3.5 stars out of 5.0

Under the Gun

I set a goal of cycling 4k miles this year. I was holding out hope, but after this weekend I don't think it's realistic (I'll explain more below on the weekend). I have a new goal of beating last year's mileage. I've done 3,235 so far in 2009, which is 365 miles shy of the 3,600 I did in 2008. But it's gonna be tight. The days are getting shorter and the weather is getting colder. I'm going to need a lot of motivation and some luck from the weather to get things done.

This past weekend, I was scheduled to do three days of riding in the Catskills. An NYCC member put together a plan to have about 30-40 serious cyclists stay at a cheesy dude ranch (in order to keep the costs low) and ride amongst the fall foliage. He spent countless e-mails downplaying the accommodations in order to manage expectations about the condition of the property and the quality of the food (it's an all-inclusive type of deal).

All told I was hoping to get in about 200 miles over a 5 day stretch including a warm up ride on Thursday. However, early Thursday morning I got an e-mail from a company for a last minute interview. I really want the job so I skipped the warm-up ride. Fast forward to Friday night. We pull up to the ranch, which is about 2 hours from NYC, and I can't believe how hillbilly the clientele is. It's 9pm and there's a full-blown drunken Karaoke session happening just a few feet from the reception desk. I'm beside myself. I'm ready to eat the cost of the whole weekend. I can't imagine staying here much less eating all my meals here.

When we got to our room I felt a little better. It didn't quite smell as bad as I had feared and while the condition wasn't great, it was bearable. The walls however were paper thin. At this point I'm still fearing eating at this place.

We wake for breakfast and some of the anxiety has washed away. We sit with a bunch of people I know and I'm feeling better. The food is actually fairly edible. And the visuals weren't near as bad as I was expecting. I head back to my room feeling better.

The weather forecast called for 60 degrees and sunny, which is on the border for a normal shirt sleeve jersey. I debate bringing my windbreaker, which folds into a pouch, but I leave it behind thinking it is an unnecessary inconvenience. As I'm leaving my room I see everyone in cold weather gear. I jokingly poo poo them. Boy was I wrong. About 5 miles into the ride I'm feeling a chill as the sun goes away. Then we start climbing, and climbing hard, for about a mile. I ask someone if this is one of the two big climbs we're scheduled to do. Nope, just a warm up they say. Hmmmm, I'm losing my edge. About 15 miles into the ride the wind starts kicking in as we pass a reservoir. Now I'm getting cold. We make a right and head into some more brutal climbing. This time instead of a mile it's about 3 or 4 miles and steeper. I ask someone if now this is one of the two big climbs we're scheduled to do. Nope, just another warm up they say. Ok, had enough. I'm freezing and my legs are burning already. If we are doing substantially more climbing I figured it's going to get even colder. I thank everyone and turn around to head home. I feel like a bit of a wuss but the cold and climbing just psyched me out. I ended up getting 40 miles in, which wasn't so bad.

At dinner that night I learned that the second climb I did was, in fact, one of the two big climbs we were scheduled to do. Actually, it was the harder of the two climbs! No matter, I was so friggin' cold I really needed to just go back. Turns out that it got even colder at the top and people who were dressed in tights and layers with jackets were cold. I can't imagine how I would have felt in a short sleeve jersey!

Ok so long story longer the meal at dinner was actually pretty solid but the visuals were really getting to me. I can't get too descriptive for fear of being called a snob. But given that I didn't really want to ride the next day, my desire to leave the place was burning. Additionally, my elbow was hurting me for some reason. I spoke with the guy I rode up with and talked him into leaving a full day early! It certainly helped that the weather was even colder on Sunday. I went to the front desk and told them we were checking out early in the slim hopes we'd get a refund for the last day...and we go one. BONUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So I wasted two days and a couple hundred bucks. I'll never do this trip again, no matter how little money I have. Just not my thing. Now I have to figure out a way to makeup those miles.