Idaho Update

I'm on an extended vacation in Idaho that has two parts. First, I was joined for five days by a good buddy of mine, Ross. Next, I'm spending a week with firSSt riding around the McCall area on our bikes.

I dropped Ross off in Boise today. We had a great time and I think he came away pretty impressed with the area. We arrived Thursday afternoon and played golf at Tamarack on Friday. Ross is a great athlete. He crushed me for the first 12 or so holes but I came back to even the score by the end. Tamarack is a beautiful course. On Saturday, we had a local outfitter take us flyfishing on the north fork of the Payetter River. It was the first time fly fishing for both of us -- I had a blast. I can definitely see how people enjoy it. It helped that I caught a huge fish -- a 22" wild idaho rainbow trout. Ross is forwarding me the pictures later and I'll post them here. Saturday afternoon we took a ride up to Riggins, headed east onto the main fork of the Salmon River and ascended back up to McCall through some windy mountain roads. On Sunday, we rode mountain bikes on Tamarack. It was intense. We took the lift up the mountain and rode some treacherous trails down. Ross took a huge digger, falling off his bike along a steep drop. Luckily he was stopped by a big bush about 10 feet down or he might have been seriously injured. He was still pretty banged up though with lots of scrapes and bruises on him. He perserved like the 25 year old he is.



FirSSt and I did a warmup ride today. Cycling here is awesome. We took a back road that runs along farmland with cows and horses. The views of the mountains in the background were serene. I'm pumped up to do some more riding.

You Will Be Happier

I'm sitting at home sick with a splitting headache watching the stock market meltdown on CNBC. One thing I've been saying for years now is once our economy resets and all the excesses are wrung out, you'll be happier. The ridiculous materialistic societal pressures will subside. Most of us will be working different jobs. Jobs where we actually produce something instead of trying to outthink the person next to us. You'll spend less time thinking about how to make enough money to secure your next purchase. Instead, you'll take in more of the beauty in the world around you -- the sun, fresh air, water and mountains. You'll find people acting more like human beings were originally intended to act -- with compassion, consideration and respect. In short, what's truly important in life will once again become most important.

On a more mundane note, I'm praying my headache subsides by tomorrow because I haven't ridden my bike all week. I want to get a few more rides in before I visit firSSt in Idaho next week.

Twin Peaks

I’m definitely a fundamental investor when it comes to dissecting financial markets and securities. However, I’ve grown to appreciate technicals as a nice complimentary tool. One basic chart formation is called a “double-top” , which is defined as a bearish reversal pattern characterized by two highs at roughly equal value. If you look at the S&P Index monthly chart above, it appears we have put in a double top. Fundamentals would also argue for a double-top or twin peaks as I like to call them. The first peak in the S&P was caused by the Internet bubble and the second peak by the real estate bubble. While at first blush it may seem the Internet bubble was more troubling, the real estate bubble is in fact much more troubling and will cause more collateral damage.

Why you ask? See while the Internet seemed much more frenzied and speculative, etc…, it spawned a whole new wave of innovation and productivity for our economy. Sure it was a bubble and a big one at that, but it was funded mostly with equity and had little leverage attached to it other than some margin debt. So after the speculative investment bubble popped, only equity values were impaired and we still had a continuing beneficial impact from innovation/productivity gains.

However, the real estate bubble is a completely different story. Bigger houses and more home improvement centers don’t make our economy any more efficient or competitive. The real estate bubble is reflective of the golden age of financial engineering driven by the Fed’s high octane mix of negative real interest rates and lax regulation on financial instruments. Excessive risk, speculation and leverage were the name of the game and housing was the poster child. We are now paying the price for these excesses. The leverage is being worked out of the system but the problem is that there is more than meets the eye. In addition to vertical leverage (debt), there’s also a lot of horizontal leverage (counterparty risk).

The great money machine of Wall St. is now closed for business and likely so for several years. The benign growth environment we have enjoyed for the past 25 years (e.g., low inflation, low interest rates and low tax rates—both personal/corporate and capital gains) is in the rearview mirror. These factors were unsustainable and are now reversing, which will cause a reversion to the mean in economic growth and household wealth. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out but I predict a long slow grind down to the 1,000-1,100 level for the S&P Index. Few people comprehend the tremendous wealth effect these benign growth factors have had on the New York area. NYC real estate is in the cross-hairs.

On a different but somewhat related topic, lately I’ve been questioning how “economic” our growth really is considering 70% of our GDP is based on consumption. The government gave tax rebates in order to reinforce our bad consumption habits and the market rallied when retail sales were up 1% last month. This is good, how? The government is stretched and so is the consumer. The tax rebates were the equivalent of a financially unstable drug dealer giving away dope for free to an addict in the hopes it revives his/her appetite for drugs to drive revenues – yet the addict can’t afford anymore drugs nor can the dealer afford to incent growth. Something’s gotta give.

In With The Old

For the past few days, my ears have been ringing with the unsolicited fit advice I got after Tuesday morning laps. I decided to skip laps this morning so I could ride on my own tonight and test out my old fit again. I zipped home after work and adjusted my bike back to the original fit measurements I got when I was custom fitted 18 months ago by a local racer who uses the Wobble Naught fitting system.

As I was cruising up 8th Ave toward Central Park, I checked myself out in the reflection of storefront windows and liked what I saw. My back was flatter and I appeared more stretched out. Further, I didn't feel as much pressure on my hands and arms. My old fit, which felt uncomfortable a month ago, suddenly felt more comfortably. Why? Who knows.

As I started my first lap in the park, I ran into a buddy from the SIG. He was in the middle of a warmup lap before hill repeats. I agreed to join him. This guy was kicking my ass in the SIGs. But now I was roasting him on the hill repeats. It wasn't even close. My new old fit feels great. We did 10 Harlem Hill repeats and headed home. I could have done 20 or 25. A year ago, 6 or 8 was my max.

I'm feeling good on the bike again.

Thinking back, I'm not sure why I took Eric's advice on fitting and new parts. He's a freaking mountain biker. What does he know about road bike fit? Not much. But he sure knows how to perk up sales after hours by playing on people's insecurities during maintenance class.

Unfit for Cycling

Shortly after my post this morning, I got an unsolicited e-mail from a racer that does the morning laps critiquing my fit. Turns out all the fine-tuning I did has created a butchered position. Just call me the Dr. Frankenstein of cycling.

Here are the two main issues she pointed out:

1) My upper body is very high.
2) My feet point out, very much. Which will affect my knees (eventually) -- although this may be natural for me.

Man, back to the drawing board. I may need to go back to the guy who originally did my fit. I do have all the key bike measurements from when he did my fit two years ago -- I think first I'll try to move my setup more toward these figures to see how it goes. Adjustment number one will be to move my saddle back on the rails. Fingers crossed.

The Art of War

Perhaps Sun Tzu's most famous quote from the Art of War is "every battle is won before it is fought". Today I lost the battle at 5:40am.

Last week between rain and scheduling conflicts I wasn't able to make either of the Tues/Thurs morning A training rides in Central Park. Today I made my first appearance since I finished all three laps roughly two weeks ago. As soon as I got up this morning I had it in my head I wasn't going to finish. I thought to myself "my legs feel sluggish...I didn't sleep well...man is it hot out"...you name the excuse and I had it ready in my head.

Even as I rolled up to the meeting spot at Tavern on the Green I told a few people I know "man...I'm not finishing today". Guess what? I didn't finish. I did however make 1.5 very fast laps before fading into the distance. The first lap was 16:20 - which is almost a full minute faster than the fastest lap from two weeks ago (17:10). I haven't decided if I'm going to do the Thursday laps or not -- it really depends on whether I decide to do a distance ride tomorrow or not.

Peak to Trough

Yesterday was one of my worst days on the bike. It felt like my first day riding. I’m still mulling how or why it happened.

As I’ve written previously, now that the SIG is over I need to find my own weekend rides. My preference is to ride with friends/people I already know. But the New York Cycle Club has ride listings posted every day (by people who volunteer to lead them). Yesterday I decided to do a recurring NYCC ride I’ve tried once before. It’s a hilly 62 miles starting with River Road and continuing into the Nyack/Piermont area.

I have a true love/hate relationship with River Road. It is my cycling nemesis. It is arguably the most beautiful ride experience near NYC. The road runs along the NJ side of the Hudson River and is carved out of the Palisades rock. The views are awesome, as is the foliage – at times you feel like you are riding through Jurassic Park. Here’s the rub. It’s an incredibly hilly road and you don’t really get much of a warmup beforehand considering it starts right over the GWB. It’s pretty much a nightmare for cyclists like me who need a nice long warmup before tackling hills.

I broke off after we completed 20 miles (just after finishing River Road). I think I pushed it too hard on one of the hills and “bonked” early on. Every pedal stroke was feeling like a struggle and I had no power in my legs. I decided to just ride around NY/NJ for a while. I went to Piermont to visit the bicycle shop there. I then rode to a bagel shop about 10 miles away in NJ. I doubled back to Piermont and up to Nyack and rode along a trail that is right next to the Hudson – very pretty.

In retrospect, continuing my ride after I felt bad initially was a mistake physically and mentally. I took route 501 home into a huge headwind. I was hurting. Then some jerk comes up behind me and starts drafting my wheel. I can barely pedal and someone is using me to their benefit. It was too much to take. I broke off and climbed a long hill to 9W in order to shake him.

As I was riding on the west shoulder of 9W heading south a tan car going 90-100mph came up from behind and passed the car on my left. It was the one lane section of 9W so he passed by heading into oncoming traffic. It struck me as strange at first but I didn’t pickup on the magnitude of the situation until several cop cars also doing 90-100mph came whizzing up as well. About a mile up I saw 10 or so cop cars stopped on the side of the road. I smelled burnt rubber and plastic. The suspect’s car was up on the grass on the west side of the road. The front of the car was completely smashed in and the airbag was engaged. Somehow the driver was able to get away from the car and was on the loose in the woods. The cops were trying frantically to contain the area. It was a full-on manhunt reminiscent of the move Fugitive. Cop cars were blaring up and down 9W. It was bedlam. I’m still trying to figure out what happened. I struggled home and looked at my odometer – 70 miles ridden. I collapsed on my bed and am still struggling a bit physically today.

It amazes me how I had my best and worst days of cycling back-to-back. I can’t do the A training laps tomorrow morning. My spirit is too broken. I’m going to rest a few days and then do a long ride on Wednesday in preparation for next weekend.